H1 2026 has profoundly reshuffled the container shipping market. Conflict in the Middle East, the continued diversion via the Cape of Good Hope, pressure on capacity: the scenarios outlined at the start of the year have had to contend with a shifting geopolitical reality.
During our webinar Container shipping at mid-year: from scenarios to market reality, Jérôme de Ricqlès, liner shipping expert at Upply, et Thomas Larrieu, CEO of Upply, weighed our early-year scenarios against current market conditions.
Here are the three key takeaways to keep in mind ahead of H2.
1/ The Cape detour is reshaping the market's balance
On average, the Cape of Good Hope route adds 17 days to North Continent Europe and 25 days to West Med, compared to the Suez Canal. That's a roughly 20% cost increase per vessel, largely driven by fuel consumption.
But the bigger impact lies elsewhere: a rotation that used to run at 4.2 to 4.3 voyages a year drops to just 3.2 via the Cape. In other words, each vessel completes fewer rotations annually, mechanically tightening the capacity available on the market.
The Cape detour is no longer just an operational constraint: it has become a structural factor shaping the balance between supply and demand, at a time when rethinking shipping routes to avoid chokepoints is emerging as a strategic priority. As long as geopolitical risk and insurance constraints remain elevated, carriers have every incentive to maintain this setup, despite the higher cost.
2/ A large-scale Suez reopening is once again being pushed back
Late in 2025, a large-scale return of vessels via the Suez Canal was clearly on the table for 2026. The conflict in the Middle East changed that calculus. Should the situation stabilize durably, a gradual return could begin around Q4, mainly for 8,000 to 15,000 TEU vessels.
18,000 to 24,000 TEU vessels, on the other hand, are expected to keep using the Cape of Good Hope route for longer. Carriers have no incentive to rush a redeployment via Suez while sizeable newbuilding deliveries are still scheduled in the coming months. That combination would create overcapacity, and the kind of downward pressure on freight rates carriers have every reason to delay for as long as possible.
3/ Surcharges aren't easing at the same pace
The Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS) should ease quickly, from late July or early August, as bunker surtaxes shift, with real room for negotiation, even for small shippers under FAK or quarterly NAC baskets.
The War Risk Surcharge (WRS), by contrast, remains highly dependent on each carrier's commercial policy. Given sometimes significant gaps between carriers, benchmarking market offers before committing can prove decisive.
One caveat remains: even when an exceptional surcharge disappears, its effect on price doesn't always go away with it. Some carriers fold it directly into their base rates through open-ended General Rate Increases (GRI). In other words, falling surcharges don't automatically translate into a lower total cost of transport.
To go further
These three takeaways are only part of what will shape the market in H2. The Persian Gulf's exposure through its transshipment hubs, the scenarios for a gradual Suez reopening by vessel size, port tensions, and regulatory shifts will all continue to influence supply chains in the months ahead.
To dive deeper, watch the replay of our webinar Container shipping: from scenarios to market reality, ainsi que dans notre livre blanc Our container shipping scenarios for H2 2026.
