The 2026-2027 tender season in containerized ocean freight is starting against a backdrop of freight rate trends that vary widely from one route to another, a sharp increase in capacity ahead, and persistent major uncertainty around the situation in the Red Sea.
During our webinar on the 2026-2027 tender season, attending shippers asked Jérôme de Ricqlès, shipping expert at Upply, and Thomas Larrieu, CEO of Upply , many questions. We have grouped them into four main topics: timing, fuel, contract length, and choice of channel.
To go further, download our white paper “Containers: Our tips for contract negotiations 2026-2027”.
For Jérôme de Ricqlès, more factors currently argue in favor of a “late bird” approach: freight rates are high, and considerable capacity is expected in the coming years.
At Upply, we believe rates are likely to erode in 2027, though we do not expect a collapse. Several factors, both within and outside the market, could still change the picture.
Demand, for its part, has held up better than expected: while most carriers had budgeted for a drop in East-West volumes in 2026, volumes actually grew. The question now is whether this momentum will last.
The arguments for and against signing early are detailed in our dedicated white paper.
According to Jérôme de Ricqlès, fuel accounts for around 25% of carriers’ operating costs. Note that this figure can vary significantly from one carrier to another, and the fuel share can be lower, down to around 16%.
Either way, fuel remains a structural factor that can weigh on shippers’ all-in rates. According to our experts, it is in fact the key factor currently limiting the risk of an ocean freight rate collapse in the short term. To track its evolution and put it in perspective with other market indicators, discover Upply’s Data Hub.
Which VLSFO prices should you use for the 2026-2027 season?Our white paper gives you the right benchmarks to build into your tender matrix.
A long-term fixed-price contract exposes you to paying well above the market or, conversely, to having your containers left on the quay if the price is too low.
For our experts, the classic “one year, one price” approach is becoming increasingly obsolete for all commercial partners. The trend is toward shorter commitments, such as 6+6 contracts and mini-tenders launched mid-contract. For Jérôme de Ricqlès, the challenge is to strike the right balance between a long-term commitment, which gives relevance to the relationship with your carriers, and the agility needed to respond to disruptions.
Mini-tenders make exactly this surgical approach possible. Done manually, they are heavy work; with the right data and the right tool, they become much easier to manage.
Geopolitical risk also calls for caution: a contract signed during a hybrid war will not withstand a real open war.
According to Jérôme de Ricqlès, direct negotiation used to be accessible for much more modest volumes, around 10,000 TEU a year. The threshold has risen sharply since then. To get a real gain by negotiating directly with carriers, you now need to bring around 80,000 to 100,000 TEU a year to the table.
Today, economies of scale and the complexity of tenders make freight forwarders increasingly relevant. The need to transfer part of the risk and to retain flexibility is also pushing shippers to broaden their contracting channels.
Our expert points out that transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains fragile, and that the impact of a new crisis would vary widely by sector. He discusses the trade-offs this implies in the webinar replay.
The questions asked during the webinar show that shippers are above all looking for flexibility: in when they sign, in how long they commit, and in which partners they choose.
